2008年7月29日 星期二

Dangerous ground Pakistan is reeling from rising radicalism and slumping economy.What the new government must do to fix the nation

In recent weeks,Pakistan,one of the world's most dangerous countries,has been further shaken by,of all people,a bus driver,a ski-shift operator and a gym rat.On june 28 Pakistan paramilitary forced chased militants led by Mangel Bagh,who used to drive a bus,from the fringes of Peshawar,a key transit point for supplies for U.S. and NATO forces fighting the Taliban insurgency in neighboring Afghanistan.While the operation was nominally successful-Bagh and his men were driven from the area and his compound was blown up-the militant leader was back on his pirate raido station a few hours later,vowing to continue his fight for an Islamic state.In Swat,once a tourist haven 100 miles from the international capital Islamabad,militants burned down the country's only ski-resort and torched 21 girls schools.A spokesman for Mullan Fazlullah,the local Taliban leader who used to work the resort's chairlift,said their group was forced to act because government security forces were using some of the school as bunkers.In the fobidding tribal zone of Waziristan,followers of Baitullah Mehsud,the physical-education teacher turned assassin(both the CIA and Pakistan's intelligence agencies say he is behind the attack that killed former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in December),slaughtered 22 government negotiators seeking to cement a cease-fire accord.And on July 6 a suicide bomber blew himself up near Islamabad's red mosque,killing 19.While no one has claimed responsibility,it's assumed that the attack was in revenge for the death of some 100 Islamic militants who died in clashes with security forces at the mosque exactly a year ago.Radicalism is on the rise,says political analyst Takat Masood.The government has not been able to take control of the situation.




Five months after elections brought a civilian government back to power,Pakistan is reeling.It's not just the attacks by militants.The economy,which had been growing steadily,has been hit hard by spiking fuel and food costs.The paramilitary coalition that eclipsed the former military leader,Prevez Musharraf,promised to bring peace and progress.Instead,the new leaders are preoccupied with wrangling over who is in charge.Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani,a stalwart of Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party,bows to Asif Zardari,Bhutto's windower,who is co-chair of the party but does not hold government office.The government is an unwidely coalition between bitter enemies.The ppp and the Pakistan Muslim League-N,led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif,the two parties traded power three times in eight years before Musharraf put an end to their bickering by overthrowing Sharif in a 1999 coup.Their power-sharing agreement,formed out of a common desire to oust Musharraf,is now riven over how to accomplish that.Musharraf,meanwhile,has been reduced to a largely ceremonial role as President.Says Masood.The people are disappointed with the leadership and they are losing faith in democracy.




In order to fix the Pakistan,the new government msut move simultaneously on serveral fronts,besides tackling militancy,also the slowing economy,skyrocketing inflation,a nationwide electricity shortage and the integration of the troubled tribal areas that operate under colonial-era laws separating them from the rest of the country.But first the coalition partners need to figure out how to co-operate.Nobody is minding the store,says Shaukat Qadir,a retired brigadier.If they dont't start paying attention,we will be in trouble.




The most immediate casualty of the political shenanigans in Islamabad is the global war on terror.According to a report released by the Pentagon on June 27,Taliban militants in Afghanistan have regrouped after their fall from power and coalesced into a resilient insurgency.That resilience,say Western military officals in Afghanistan,has a lot to do with their ability to find sanctuary in Pakistan's lawless tribal areas along the border.The day before the report's release,U.S defense Secretary Robert Gates said in a press briefing that he had real concern that Pakistan was contributing to Afghanistan's instability by failing to prevent militants from crossing into Afghanistan to carry out attacks on coalition forces.Cross-border attacks on U.S. troops in eastern Afghanistan have gone up some 40% in recent months.Gates at contributes the increase to cease-fire accords between Pakistani authorities and Islamic militants,under which Islamabad agreed to pull its miitary out of area controlled by the radicals in exchange for their promise not to attack government institutions.The ideal mean that the pressure was taken off the militants,who are now free to be able to cross the border and create problem for us.said Gates.Not that American are the only target-only July 7 a suicide bombing outside the Indian embassy in Kabul killed at least 40 people-an attack Afghan authorities blamed on Pakistani elements.






To be fair,Pakistan's new government came into power after the military,at the behest of Musharraf,decide to negotiate with militants.The administration embraced the peace effort in the hope that diplomacy wold succeed where force had failed.Perhaps over time the accords would have worked.Says Ayaz Wazir,a former Pakistani ambassador who hails from Waziristan.We have a saying in Pashto the local language,that if you fight for 100 years,on the last day you will again sit around the table and find a solution.So why not just start it now?





But negotiations require effort,attention and political will-all of which the current government,

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